Probabilistic forecasting of high-impact extreme weather events

Accurate forecasts of severe weather events are of crucial societal relevance and require the joint effort of atmospheric and mathematical scientists. High-impact extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall and/or strong winds are very often associated with intensive atmospheric fronts with strong gradients or deep moist convection. These events are governed by mesoscale atmospheric dynamics, operating on horizontal scales ranging from a few to several hundred kilometers. The understanding of these dynamics and their inclusion in modern numerical weather prediction models is under constant development while statistical simulation methods are called for to explore the interacting dynamics that happen at subgrid-scales. Similarly, statistical post-processing of the outputs of the numerical weather prediction models is an essential component of precise forecasts which aims to correct for possible biases and the imperfect representation of uncertainty in the forecast. This workshop will bring together academic atmospheric scientists and mathematicians, as well as atmospheric scientists from the German Weather Service to discuss the current challenges in predicting severe weather events and to further strengthen the connections between the two disciplines. 

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Kontakt:

Prof. Dr. Tilmann Gneiting
Institut für Angewandte Mathematik, Universität Heidelberg
Tel: +49 (0) 6221-54-5773                 Fax +49 (0) 6221-54-5331
E-mail: gneiting@uni-heidelberg.de
Im Neuenheimer Feld 294
69120 Heidelberg

Dr. Thordis Thorarinsdottir
Tel: (06221)-54-4987                  Fax +49 (0) 6221-54-5331
E-mail: thordis@uni-heidelberg.de
Im Neuenheimer Feld 294
69120 Heidelberg

 

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Letzte Änderung: 08.03.2012
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